2025 becomes a do-or-die year for Nolan Gorman as a pillar for the Cardinals

He's only 24 and has legit HR pop, but 2024 was a wrong turn-down strikeout central.

One Nolan turned and said to another Nolan, “I love you, man, but it would be best if you left town.”

The above exchange wouldn’t surround a heist gone wrong or a busted operation, but a hypothetical conversation between two members of the St. Louis Cardinals. Nolan Gorman would benefit greatly from the departure of Nolan Arenado in a trade, placing the former player back at third base when he started his professional career. A good to great third baseman is a pillar for his baseball team, a reliable source of productivity. With Gorman, the power electrifies when it’s on but goes dead too often.

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Arenado’s name has been all over the trade wire this month and Gorman should like the chatter. With Arenado in St. Louis, he’s a swing option between the designated hitter spot and second base. Before long, the younger “Norm” would find himself in the no man’s land of the outfield rotation. A fixed position at third base gives Gorman solidarity in his future with St. Louis.

According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch in his latest chat, the plan should Arenado find his way out of town would be for Gorman to get the first clear shot.

It clears his name from second base, where Thomas Saggese and Brendan Donovan will be patrolling. The first base starter spot now belongs to Willson Contreras and the outfield spots will be taken most days by Alec Burleson, Michael Siani, Victor Scott II, Lars Nootbaar, and Jordan Walker.

Last month, I predicted that an Arenado departure could free up a spot for Walker, a natural third baseman like Gorman. Then again, he is entrenched in the outfield and the Cardinals must prefer one’s defensive skills over the other at third. It’s been a while since either of them manned the hot corner for a long time, but Walker’s development in the outfield may have reached a point of no return.

Or, it’s Gorman’s to lose. Either way, that’s how he should treat this potential opportunity. If Arenado does find himself in Los Angeles or Houston, it’s go-time for Gorman. He will be 25 years old about a month into the season, so the clock is ticking. St. Louis may be in rebuild mode, but that doesn’t place them anywhere near a time-wasting zip code. The Cardinals don’t want to get close to or become familiar with the idea of being a losing ballclub, so third base needs to be solidified soon.

The 2023 version of Gorman will do just fine. He doesn’t need to step over to third and turn into Arenado circa 2022. Posting a 2.5 WAR and crushing 27 home runs like last year will be a fine transition away from the powerless confines of Arenado’s 2024 season. No one should ask for stellar defense and an unbelievable display of power. Bringing down the strikeout rate from 37% would be a nudge in the right direction.

You can have power and jack some home runs, but producing a .420 slugging percentage like his 2022 entry season would be a disappointment in a starting role for the 2025 team. Gorman’s power showed up in streaks during 2024, leaving the team to send him to Memphis in August for the remainder of the season. When they do that, it’s either a wholesale effort to get something in your swing changed or it’s time to start looking elsewhere.

Gorman’s value isn’t running thin. The team still has player control until 2029, and the negotiations will reach arbitration in 2026. It’s a perfect time for him to show the Cardinals who he is as a Major League Baseball player. Part of the rehab process of this team’s development system is to resist the urge to tinker with swings and give the right amount of time for a prospect/young player to blossom.

Is Gorman a 20-25 home run guy who strikes out 185 times a year and struggles to reach a .800 OPS kind of player, or is he something more? Consistency would be key for the young slugger. 2025 is the time to cut the shit.

Gorman has time and unique power, but becoming a legitimate pillar of reliability for a Cardinals team in transition has a time on it--and it’s been running.