5 players that could substantially help the Cardinals with a bounce-back season
If two or three of them pull off a resurgent season, the team is in good hands.
When you look at the St. Louis Cardinals on paper for the 2025 season, a few things stand out. The mix of veterans and younger players, the playing time stretched between them, and the results that could push a team with win total aspirations in the low 80s into something more. A year after winning 83 games (Fangraphs had them at 85), it’s not a stripped down roster like the nature of a rebuild would suggest.
This is different, slower and more methodical. The reason John Mozeliak asked veteran players like Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado if they wanted to stick around is more due to no-trade clauses than loyalty or the chance to enhance a lineup. Since Gray, Willson Contreras, and for now Arenado are still Cardinals, they offer those proven wins above replacement. Gray starting 33 games and Contreras playing in at least 130 games would help, but improved performance from certain players could boost those preseason projections.
After all, the team subtracted Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson from their payroll. That’s more dollars and cents than legit WAR in 2025, so the dip taken wasn’t as dramatic as November suggested. It turns out the reset comes before the rebuild. Until salaries fall off the table and the team regains control with those slots, you see what happens with player performance.
While the need for better work spreads across the roster, there are five key players who could put up a solid season that would push the team’s projections higher. There’s no need for a dramatic reversal, but another win above replacement would be a difference maker in a division without a clear favorite and three wildcard spots.
Let’s dive into them as Friday is consumed by one final work day and the extra chilly weather leaves St. Louis.
Miles Mikolas: Keep the stache, Wyatt, but shave the ERA
As I wrote recently, there’s a level of acceptance required in order to appreciate what Mikolas can do this coming season. He isn’t the guy who qualified for a Cy Young award, but he is an innings-eating, start-making fella who has value. If he could trim some fat off a bloated 5.75 ERA, the team would benefit from one or two less “Miles got slammed” outings.
He gave up the same amount of home runs (26 in 26 less innings) last year, so that can be lowered hopefully. The great thing about him is that he doesn’t walk many, but he does allow too many hits (10 per nine innings pitched). Be a little better and make 2025 a finer sendoff than a cowboy falling off his horse.
Lars Nootbaar: Stay on the field, that’s it
Fun fact: Noot owns a very good 115 OPS+, meaning that his league-wide, all parks considered output is strong. His 162 game average WAR is a nice 3.1. The only problem is he can only dream about playing in 140 games, much less 162. He smoked 12 home runs, 18 doubles, and three triples last year in only 109 games. No one is asking him to pick up all the slack from the departed Paul Goldschmidt, but staying on the field for a full season would give the team balance.
Nootbaar draws walks, hits to all fields, and won’t embarrass you in the outfield. His best defensive position is right field, but his overall Rdrs (defensive runs saved above average) of 0 shows he’s not putting the team at a disadvantage out there. Stay on the field and the fans will truly appreciate that .800+ OPS. Having said that, getting him in one spot mainly for a good chunk of the season would help his overall defense.
Nolan Arenado: Revive the power or adapt
Once a player gets into their mid-to-late 30s, they are what they are for the most part. Some are able to get through that wall. Adam Wainwright found different ways to remain valuable in the Major Leagues as he got older and lost mph and precision on his pitches. Arenado’s power has taken a drastic dip from 2022 to 2024, making his 2025 campaign a wildcard. The smarter bet would be on a slightly further decline, but it’s nowhere near impossible to imagine him bouncing back.
The Birds don’t need rocket science from Arenado. Pump that 2.5 WAR up to around 3-4 WAR, and add some homers and doubles. If not, adapt into a contact hitter who can get on base. The defense alone gives the team 1.5-2.0 WAR alone, so the bat doesn’t have to bring back the 2021-22 Nado… but something better would shave off a question mark from the team and make him a viable trade candidate in July.
Jordan Walker: Find your way back to 2023, sir
The overall goal would be to make fans drink less Johnnie Walker Blue when you’re playing, young man. Walker, the top prospect before coming into the league two years ago, got off to awful starts in both of his first two seasons. Unlike 2023, it took him a long time to find his way back to the big league club last year. He never regained his decent power stroke that was put on display his rookie year, even after a very good second half in 2023.
Walker will get a full blown, 600 at-bat season in 2025. He doesn’t have a player to go through like the next player on this list does, carving out a quicker route to being even half the player this team hyped him up to be. Here’s the deal. Like Nootbaar, he doesn’t need to flip the table over offensively. Find adequate ground in the outfield, get the ball in the air more often, and rebuild that confidence. A rebuild gives a young player with an open door a potent comfort zone. It’s not an understatement to say this coming season is an important one for Walker.
He’s been knocked down twice, making his way back to the bigs each time. Something has to stick this summer.
Nolan Gorman: More contact, Norm
More power, less strikeouts. Do that and the roadblock that is called Nado won’t seem so large. In order to show that he deserves a full-time spot, Gorman has to be more consistent. Raw power is sexy in the rookie year, but consistency in launch angle and mere contact would be a big improvement for the third baseman of the future. Walker will not be moved into the infield, and I can see the reasoning. Gorman has the team’s confidence that he could play third for a whole season.
Showing the fans and his team that they’re not clueless is the next step. If he turns up a 3.0 WAR in 2025. Like Walker, get back to a 2.5 WAR and it helps the team. That’s two more wins from Gorman than the next guy in line.
All the team needs are a few players to wake up. The Cardinals will field a lower payroll than 2024, but it will still be substantial. Having players like Gray, Arenado, Contreras, and Mikolas-they total roughly $83 million of the total payroll-doesn’t allow you to claim baseball food stamps or scream poverty. At least until the aforementioned talent disappears off the roster, they’ll sport a competitive team payroll wise.
So, perk up and hope for a couple revivals, or moderate improvements, from a few players. The Milwaukee Brewers aren’t a team you’d bet the mortgage on winning the division right, even if they’re a favorite right now. The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds aren’t going anywhere. Pittsburgh can continue to be a pest, but they do have Paul Skenes.
Add a WAR per player from these five and that’s upper 80s win total aspirations rather than low 80s, where you don’t even get a free set of steak knives.