5 takeaways from the Cardinals’ trade deadline activity

They did what they said.

John Mozeliak has been known to hold his poker cards pretty close to the chest, especially around trade deadline hours. The Swiss bank becomes a steel trap, pushing reporters and fans out into the dark when it comes to their plans moving forward.

But 2023 is a different beast. There is no playing or beating around the proverbial bush. The team is bad and must be dissected for future seasons worth. Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals did exactly what they said this past week.

Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty were traded. The return was over ten players, one who pitched an inning of relief Tuesday night (John King).

Let’s get into some takeaways from the moves, as St. Louis city enjoys a rainy cool off from last week’s steam bath.

5) The Joker to Baltimore

The return for Jack Flaherty is weaker than one would expect, but only upon initial glance. He’s not the 2019 second half hoss anymore. Remember that Mozeliak wasn’t dealing a top of the rotation arm here. That’s what Flaherty used to be. What he is sits closer to a halfway durable #3 starter, and that’s the ceiling when it comes to his current value.

New Memphis Redbirds pitcher, Drew Rom, doesn’t inspire much excitement when you look at his season of work. He’s the top arm in the Flaherty trade, but that’s only due to the fact that he’s already in AAA. The other two players are fine prospects, but that’s what they are. Underwhelming yet not too surprising of a return.

Why Joker? Flaherty has made his affinity for the character well known, but it also connects to his overall talent and value. He could be something special, but has never been able to stay there for long.

4) DeJong goes to Canada

Paul DeJong’s value was built up mainly over the first three years of his seven year career, but has struggled to stay afloat since. DeJong showed a 20+ home run burst in years 1-3, which turned into a contract extension that most fans thought was too soon. The next 3 seasons were nothing but strikeout-fueled struggles, with long stints in the minor leagues. This year, he made it back and has given the team a power boost while allowing Masyn Winn to develop further at Triple-A.

The team received a quality prospect in Matt Svanson, who is performing very well at High A ball. Like most of these trades, you can’t think about 2023 or even 2024.

3) Stop thinking about 2024

Don’t be fooled by the front office saying these moves are calculations based on a revival next year. You don’t go from being 13-15 games under .500 to simply having it together. The truth is very few of these deals are made with 2024 in mind. The rebuild won’t be swift, even if Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt Jr. would like it to be.

They’re in no man’s land when it comes to being sellers and gearing up for a long, sad winter before August is a week old. Since they didn’t trade any big names, the Cardinals left the window open for contention next year without confirming it.

Next year, they have two starters under contract, and a bunch of maybes. Their outfield is to be determined, only Jordan Walker should be a certainly there. Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson are fine players but uncertain for long term production. Their catcher position, while signed long term, looks as sure as a trip down Kingshighway during rush hour.

Think about 2025 and 2026. That’s where they could reenter the gray as a serious contender. Trading for a legitimate top of the rotation starter changes things, but don’t expect it. Reformatting the bullpen helps the rotation stay hydrated when games go bad. Having 24 blown saves on Aug. 2 is embarrassing. Pedro Borbon could help this team right now.

You don’t solve that in one winter. This team isn’t one piece away, unless that piece is Shohei Ohtani. Settle in for the long haul.

2) 2023-24 is for finding answers

Dylan Carlson. Tyler O’Neill. Alec Burleson. Who are they to this team moving forward? Fourth outfielders shouldn’t be an answer. Figure out your outfield heading into next year. The construction that grew out of the Bader-Carlson-O’Neill trio has eroded through trade, injury, or underperformance.

The Cardinals did, once upon a time, hold onto Carlson in trade talks, and they did the same with Bader and O’Neill. Now that you’ve held onto them and refused to improve by trading them, see what’s there.

If Mozeliak is truly gun shy about letting more outfielders walk due to former players finding success elsewhere, he should forfeit his job. Being in charge is all about making mistakes and learning from them, improving future iterations of your product. The Cardinals are bound by a certain method for winning that isn’t working anymore.

Does he feel head over heels for Lars Nootbaar still? Let’s see the pepper get ground the final two months then, because next year can’t be a grab bag selection of maybe-good outfielders. Get labels.

1) Find your way, Oli

If there’s one thing that has to be fixed next year, it’s the fundamentals. The defense, base running, and overall decision making have taken a huge dive this season, a far cry from last year’s gold glove laden crew.

That starts with coaching, and ends with a manager who knows how to get the most out of his coaches. Marmol’s first year after the abrupt firing of Mike Shildt included an improbable second half ascension, and a division title with a hollowed out ending.

There have been too many occasions where another manager has out-managed the Cardinals skipper, and that’s a losing solution. Marmol has to be able to help his team gain a run or two through his mere decision making skills. Being a young manager can work for the first two season, but he has to instruct and formulate a better team fundamental attack.

That stretches all the way across the coaching staff, from pitching coach Dusty Blake to hitting coach Turner Ward to the bench coaches. You can’t make a sudden drop like we’ve seen in 2023, and not label it a coaching issue.

If the players have to improve, so does the manager and coaching staff.

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