Don't underestimate Dylan Carlson
The young outfielder is making strides this season.
The worst thing about telling a fan base that this very young player could be a star is that most of those fans hold the team official to it, no matter what trajectory the kid finds himself on due to team performance, off field troubles, or anything else that pops up.
For example, in 2022, Dylan Carlson has taken on a whole new role on the St. Louis Cardinals: outfield everyman. With Harrison Bader and (for a time) Tyler O’Neill sidelined, Carlson found himself at the top of the lineup, in the middle of the order, and placed out in Bader’s CF perch. No matter what has been thrown at him, the soon-to-be 24-year-old moves to that spot and produces.
With Juan Soto hanging in the trade deadline balance, Carlson’s name has frequently come up as a possible suitor in a trade proposal with Washington. However, some fans are underestimating his worth and talent. I saw this on Twitter today:
Correction, @MambaFan4Life: “You guys” overrate the hell out of every prospect. Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson are high quality prospects, but they haven’t done shit in the Majors yet. Nothing. They are equal to or less than hype at the moment. Carlson is enjoying his second season in the big leagues, one that has seen modest strides.
His strikeouts are down from 152 last season to just 60 so far this year. He has 22 doubles on July 28th, along with six home runs and three triples. His OPS is a decent .751, and his OPS+ (100 is average) currently sits at 115. That’s the same OPS he held at the end of 2021, where he smoked 18 homers and knocked 31 doubles around the park. Cards fans may be overestimating him, but just go and underestimate him too much.
He’s doing certain things better in center field than the fan favorite Bader, including going back on deep flies to center and coming in more efficiently. Carlson leaves the Jim Edmonds type theatrics of a diving catch to Bader as well, taking on a more nonchalant attitude out there. Carlson has saved three runs in center, as opposed to costing St. Louis six runs in right field. Bader is still way better overall, but Carlson has proven himself to be a multi-faceted defensive player.
Don’t sleep on the switch-hitter profile of Carlson, either. While he may lack power from the left side, he can still slap hits around the field. On the right side is where he finds his HR lifting pop., something that will produce double-digit homers for years to come.
Now, double-digit home runs and a modest guard over center field doesn’t make Carlson the next MVP. It just makes him a dependable Major League Baseball player, a commodity that is getting swept under the rug due fans expecting crazy things out of these players. Washington would be lucky to have Carlson, along with a bevy of prospects, if they couldn’t find a way to keep Soto. He’s not a straight up trade piece, Carlson, but don’t sleep on his talents.
He is going to at least equal or exceed many of his offensive totals from last season, with HR being the likely one left out--unless DC goes berserk during the final two months of the season. That’s all fine and dandy. Carlson and Soto are around the same age and will play in the same ballpark this weekend. That’s as far as the comparisons will go.
Whether he leaves town or not, Carlson will only get better. He’s only in his second season of full duty, and the extra base hits and discipline have improved in year 2. All he needs is a trustworthy local detective named Gordon to take him to the next level.
That movie reference is where I leave you, but remember this. Soto could be a Cardinal next week, or he could be still wearing the Nationals red. Either way, don’t sleep on Dylan Carlson. He’s already here and making small yet potent waves.