If the Cardinals signed Jordan Montgomery, a lot of their problems would vanish

They won't, but the payroll room and reasoning sure do exist.

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Sports fans think they’re the smartest coaches alive. After all, it’s our blood, sweat, and tears that make the games what they are. In the case of St. Louis Cardinals fans, it’s detailing all the moves that their front office won’t make, even though they’ll still show in three million plus numbers this summer.

“Trade for Shohei Ohtani!”

“Sign, trade, acquire these three pitchers!”

“Get that guy, and then trade this other dude.”

The Cardinals were never going to outbid Los Angeles for Ohtani, the same reason they’ll never be able to contend with the west coast behemoth for offseason acquisitions. John Mozeliak takes up the more scrappy approach, signing three pitchers in a week and offloading some expired talent before another team could budge.

In all honesty, the Cardinals didn’t have a bad offseason. They signed three starters, and acquired three relievers, including a sure keeper in Andrew Kittredge. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are question marks, but not painfully hard to solve ones. Sonny Gray gives the team a top of the rotation presence, but they need another. Whether they do it or not is a fact that reality will dice up in a few weeks, but it’s pretty clear what the final move before 2024 begins should be.

Sign Jordan Montgomery. He’s sitting there on the market, waiting for a team to love on him a little. A four to six year deal should do it, and his 31 years of age wouldn’t buckle the team’s future or the farm system. No prospects are required in a straight money deal, which happens to be Mozeliak’s second favorite meal behind the B.L.T. pizza at California Pizza Kitchen. Monty just needs cash and comfort.

His agent, Scott Boras, is a tough fella to deal with and executives loathe discussing a long-term contract with his players--but Mo has dealt with him before. Remember the extended standoff before Matt Holliday signed here long-term back in 2010. Three weeks of January almost expired before he inked the paper. Montgomery is about to enter February without a deal.

Despite a great finish with Texas, resulting in a World Series title, Montgomery hasn’t gotten what he prefers yet. Along with the enigmatic Blake Snell, it’s a southpaw highway for front office suits to travel on until the spring games begin. The oddity of the lack of a contract doesn’t seem so peculiar when you think about the fact that exhibition games don’t start for over a month.

But the Cardinals could answer a lot of fan wishes and calm plenty of fears by offering him a contract. Offer him four years of $25+ million, and filter in some raises he could hit with innings/wins/Cy Young finish, etc. Or offer him a five to six year deal that doesn’t include as much money as it does security.

Montgomery has stated he’d like to return to a place that he’s already pitched; New York, St. Louis, and Texas are all qualifiers there. He gives off a low-key, not flashy vibe that sounds like a mature adult who simply wants to pitch. After bringing the ring fever to Texas, righting a wrong that David Freese created 13 years ago, Montgomery could return some much-needed deep postseason jitters to the Midwest.

According to Ken Rosenthal, a deal with the Rangers is on hold or perhaps out of reach. The Red Sox, linked to Montgomery this week, don’t want to spend big. The Yankees could swoop in, but what’s taking them so long? Perhaps, like Mozeliak, they’re waiting to see where the price drops.

There’s nothing flashy about his talent, but it’s a sure thing. His earned run average and fielding independent pitching marks live very close to each other (3.68/3.75). The second stat, FIP, indicates how efficient he is without his defense. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters, and strikes out a modest 8.4 hitters per nine innings.

Home runs are hard to come by off Montgomery, with him only allowing 90 in 755 career innings. With St. Louis, he only allowed 12 in 121.1 innings last year before being traded to Texas. He’s made 30, 32, and 32 starts over the past three seasons, offering more innings each season (157, 171, 188). His ERA has decreased with each jersey change, something to take note of.

Montgomery isn’t a bona fide ace, but he’s a rock solid #2. That’s similar to Sonny Gray, meaning you’d have a couple of hungry arms angling for that ace title. It’d be perfectly fine if they’d share it, because having two ace-types is a whole lot of fun for the fans and the team’s long-term ambitions.

With him, here’s how the rotation stacks up: Gray, Montgomery, Mikolas, Gibson, Lynn. Perfect? Nope. Pretty great? Yes indeed. I’m not worried about the team finding a taker for Steven Matz. A modest contract and solid-when-healthy arm shouldn’t be too hard to pawn off in a hurry.

It would complete Mozeliak’s promise and then some, bringing the team budget to right around $200 million. With Amazon swooping in to possibly calm fears for TV rights after 2024-giving Bill DeWitt Jr. time to think over their own network-that kind of payroll isn’t outlandish. 3.5 million fans would flock in, pennant contention or not.

With Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt set to enjoy bounceback seasons, the rest of the Central Division shouldn’t pose too much of a threat. It’ll be an entertaining boxing match between Milwaukee, Chicago, and St. Louis, but the Cardinals could clearly come out on top with Montgomery.

Without him, it’s a lot less assured. They’d be swimming around in 2023-24 Blues waters. Will they? Probably not. Should they? You’re damn right. Can’t we control what they do? Never.

Jordan Montgomery gives the Cardinals peace of mind about their entire offseason. He helps it all make sense. With him, Lynn and Gibson become clear 4-5 guys. The bullpen won’t get overextended, because all five of your arms are horses that’ll pump out innings and/or results. The offense settles in and keeps its top 10 attack status, maybe even improve. If only the front office would be this hungry, but they aren’t.

That’s all. Until next time, stay safe out there.