Is Luis Robert Jr. worth the squeeze for the St. Louis Cardinals?

He’s 26 and has genuine pop, but also an ominous injury history.

Every player in the Major Leagues comes with a price, in both dollar value and potential hazards. Luis Robert Jr. is no different. He is everything on paper that the Cardinals need in the outfield: young, athletic, power happy, and offers average or above average defense. He also carries a steep injury history that could scare the Cardinals off, especially after the Tyler O’Neill letdown.

Stop With the O’Neill comps

But not every potential outfield power threat should be compared to O’Neill and what he should have been in St. Louis. Here’s something to consider: O’Neill slugged below or just over .400 in four of his seasons with St. Louis. Is that really a power source, or just part-time pop? He’s an inconsistent power bat if anything, and has been relatively quiet since his great start in Boston.

Robert Jr. missed the start of this season to injury, but already has five home runs in just 13 games. For his career, dating back to his 2020 debut, he has a .501 slugging percentage. It’s not here and there power; Robert Jr. can thump the baseball.

2023 was Robert Jr.’s best and most durable season. He smashed 38 home runs, played in 148 games, and put up an .857 OPS. He gave the Chicago White Sox six defensive runs saved in centerfield. No one will mention that in their comparisons, because it doesn’t fit their worry of potential injury.

The truth is there are very few players who can be both productive and healthy for a long time. Most players hit a snag or the injured list. Robert Jr. has played two complete seasons and three incomplete seasons. That’s a roll of the dice, but it’s not much different from most of the talent that could arrive here. One guy will have a shortage of power but high average and plays a lot, while another will hit the ball farther but perhaps not as often.

Centerfield Upgrade

Facts: Robert Jr. has slashed .276/.324/.501 in his five seasons, including an impressive 124 OPS+, which places average players at 100. But what about Gold Gloves? He has one of those from playing centerfield in 2020.

That’s a spot that Tommy Edman is destined for whenever he returns from a long injury himself, but Robert Jr. gives you more in the entire package and is still young at 26. At his best, Edman gives you games and innings but ultimately an OPS under .700 with high exposure. He can move around easily. John Mozeliak told a room full of bloggers on Sunday that he’s looking for a right handed hitter who can play centerfield. Robert Jr. fits the bill.

The Cardinals didn’t exactly pass on him when teams were allowed to make offers on the Cuban slugger, but came up short to the White Sox. They could acquire him now and help the 2024 team along with installing a nice piece into the puzzle for the future. Robert Jr. is signed through next year with a couple of options for 2026 and 2027. This year and next season are moderately priced, but his price will get higher with the two option years. The alliance could be split before he’s 30, though. It wouldn’t be a rental, either.

Chicago’s Asking Price Will Be Steep

The cost is about as much of a roadblock as the injuries. Reports have the White Sox asking for a ridiculous package, one that could dwarf Juan Soto’s huge trade between the Nationals and Padres. He’s now a Yankee, but I don’t think Robert Jr. will be a White Sox player by the end of this year. It just could be a different, better contending team that brings him in.

If the White Sox request Nolan Gorman among others, Mozeliak is putting the phone down. I would have paused as well, since the players are so similar. Gorman is a better comp for Robert Jr. than O’Neill, but you’d rather have two of the three than just one. I would rather Chicago ask about Jordan Walker, which obviously won’t happen now. They will inquire about Masyn Winn, and the answer would be no.

It’s the price (more than the games missed) that will keep this deal from happening, but the worries about another O’Neill are overblown. While he needs to stay on the field like he did in 2023, Robert Jr. is a young and impressive hitter who doesn’t hurt you on defense. If you’re St. Louis and the thought process extends through 2027 rather than just this summer, you think about adding a talent like Robert Jr.

It’s easy to point out a troubling injury history, but it’s harder to find someone who can crack homers without cracking the IL or payroll too hard. He’s every bit the player hopeful Cards fans thought he would be when the team failed to outspend the White Sox to grab him off the market.

Acquiring Robert Jr. now could take an overspend from St. Louis, which they clearly won’t do. Still, the idea fits and is nice to dream about after a hard day at the plumbing supply business.