It's time for the St. Louis Cardinals to finally blow up the ship
Instead of "just get in," they should try on "just get better" for a change.
It’s time to place a bunch of C-4 around the St. Louis Cardinals’ foundational philosophy, and blow that thing to smithereens. Hit the ignite button, watch it go up in flames, and then start the rebuild. Don’t worry, it’ll be okay… eventually. Think of it as a supreme makeover, and not the beginning of a decade full of awful baseball. It’s past time for the beloved Birds to reroute their idea of roster construction and what it takes to win.
Before you shout about giving in to losing baseball for a while to rebuild, let me ask you a quick question: What have the Cardinals won in the past ten years that makes you think they can win again anytime soon? Go ahead and ruminate on that hot pepper for a minute or two.
Nothing. Nada. Zippola. Not a damn thing dot com. When that answer comes to mind very quickly and sets in like concrete, it’s reset time. Trade away or resist re-signing older, expensive talent while ushering in fresh, young inexpensive talent. Keep a couple VALUABLE veterans around to help the transition, but promote from within and see what the current farm system has and doesn’t have.
Attendance may dip and fans will question the idea of not paying an over-the-hill slugger $25 to $35 million, but they’ll get over it and new stars emerging will bring the baseball fans to the yard. When the team threatens to spend less if less people show up, tell them that’s all fine and dandy. The DeWitts spend a lot ($176 isn’t chump change) and can’t win much, so learning how to manage a smaller amount more wisely could be good for them. As a man named Eric Clapton once said, it’s in the way that you use it!
Winning has come and gone from here. If you lean too hard on the 2019 playoff series win, it will snap like an IKEA dresser. Come to think of it, this team lately is a lot like a shitty piece of IKEA furniture. It all seems like a pretty idea at some point and looks nice on the cover of the box, but it’ll still end up being shitty. The Cardinals carry an old model of player evaluation and development, and it’s not working.
Since leaving St. Louis at the trade deadline for Tampa Bay, Dylan Carlson has turned into a different player. He’s hit three home runs in a little over two weeks after finding nothing in over 100 at-bats with St. Louis. All of his numbers are up all of a sudden, as if a boulder left his shoulders. Jordan Walker, the top prospect, improved his skills after another demotion only to be positioned here as a platoon player.
Tyler O’Neill, against every sort of injury odds, has smacked 22 home runs and carries a 142 wRC+ (100 is average) for Boston. He isn’t a St. Louis farm system product, but he has done more with 80 games this year than his 72 last year. I’m talking about a .715 OPS with the Cards versus a .900 OPS with Boston.
I think this team puts insurmountable pressure on a young player, especially hitters. They mess with their swings, over-tinker with the person’s way of hitting a baseball, and end up doing more harm than good. It’s a poisonous way of developing young men into successful professional players. Either that, or the other teams have some magic voodoo on hand.
It’s not all bad. The team did locate a high quality shortstop in Masyn Winn to anchor shortstop. Tommy Edman is gone, and Nolan Gorman is a Mendoza line battling strikeout machine who has streaky power. But Alec Burleson showed up in a big way this year, hitting more consistently than fan favorite Lars Nootbaar. Willson Contreras’ numbers would be huge without that freak injury where a player’s backswing broke a bone in his arm.
This is what the team has to do. They can’t retain Paul Goldschmidt under any circumstances, instead promoting Luken Baker to play first base. He’s crushed the baseball at Memphis this year to the tune of 30+ home runs, and will cost you a whopping player minimum salary. They should find some way, any way, to trade Nolan Arenado. The offense has slipped very hard, and so has the glove work. He isn’t a star, nor is he worth $35 million.
The team would be wise to cut ties with Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn after the season too. If you add up all that potential salary loss, it comes to around $84 million that is being spent this year, but would not be on next year’s tab. How much improvement could be done with all that cash? A substantial amount.
Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy join the rotation with Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante. You could shop Gray, Fedde and/or Mikolas, but you will need assured innings from somewhere.
Brendan Donovan should be extended, because he’s a productive Swiss army knife for a contending or rebuilding team. But he’s also a fine trade piece if it pulls more salary off your books, so he’s not untouchable.
Here’s the bigger deal. Cutting players and salary is great and improves the club, but the higher-ups need to go as well. That’s where real change ignites. John Mozeliak should leave a year early into a different role with the club that doesn’t touch player development or the MLB roster, and Oliver Marmol should also go as well.
I’m not placing the onus of 2024’s demise on Marmol’s shoulders, but he’s not a good MLB manager. The Cardinals can’t afford to pin the next five years on the potential that he can improve. They don’t need a YES man; they need a Mike Shildt-type, who just turned San Diego around in a year with less talent. Marmol has never been more than a puppet who gives awkward postgame press conferences. He gets tossed out of the game in a colorful fashion, but it’s not saying the best thing about your abilities that it takes you getting launched from a game for a team to show some fire. “I’ll go make my money from the locker room, thank you very much!”
This team severely screwed up when they cut ties with Shildt. One of the many moments where this team fumbled the deck.
If you’re going to clean out the gutters, go the whole way. Most, if not all, of the Cardinals front office ecosystem should go too. Bye, Michael Girsch. Stick around, Randy Flores. Chaim Bloom, you’re in charge. Let’s see what a different brain trust and coaching staff can do. Fire everybody in that dugout except for Stubby Clapp. Maybe give the guy who helped a minor league affiliate win a championship something more than first base.
It may take a few years to get back to division-winning prominence, but the third wildcard gives a rebuilding/retooling team an avenue to sneak in and do damage. What needs to go is the lame philosophy of “just get in and see what happens.” A better way to look at that notion is to simply “get better” and know you’ll be in the mix. This team has no idea if they can be a mere outside the box type of contender, so get a clue first.
Without that new directive, you can expect more ho-hum finishes. 2023’s club was 71-91. This team is currently 60-62, but could sink to near ten games worse than .500. The Cardinals can’t just go position-hunting and dumpster diving any longer, because that reported drop in attendance will only get worse with each follow-up rendition of “ruin prospects, strike out a bunch, do nothing” nonsense.
It’s time to change the way this team thinks. Once again, what has this team won lately? When you can’t get into the playoffs with THREE wildcard spots available and are spending over $175 million to do so, there’s a problem.
Bill DeWitt Jr. needs to acknowledge the problem, and then get to work on fixing it. Or, sell the fucking team to someone who will fix the problem. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Diet Cardinals baseball.
You hit the nail on the head, Buffa. They need to just accept that a full rebuild is needed and blow it up. I’d rather they lose 100 games as part of a deliberate rebuilding plan than aimlessly lose 85.