Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado’s missing offense is the difference between playoffs and vacation for Cardinals

One of them needs to wake up... fast.

I’m talking about really waking up. Hitting a home run every week or so isn’t going to pull the team out of the middling contention group. Proof that you’re alive with a bat in your hands isn’t good enough. The Cardinals need more from their two big dogs. Their two biggest acquisitions in the last ten years-Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado-are stuck in the worst offensive season of their entire career, and it’s killing the Cardinals… or at least their chances of climbing back into serious contention.

What happens to every hitter happened to these two guys over the offseason. In a span of a year, they have gone from threats to below average performers. One can trace Goldschmidt’s demise back to last year somewhat, but anyone who works for or loves the Cardinals would love for some of his months from 2023 to show up. He started June last year with 10 homers; he entered play today on June 20 with only nine.

Goldschmidt slugged a paltry (for him) .447 last year, but can’t get over .360 this year. He had an ordinary 31 doubles last year, but only nine so far this year. Granted, the guy is coming alive in spurts--like that beat-up muscle car making it to the grocery store before sputtering out. He’s collected five hits in his last four games, including that here-and-there home run offering. Overall, he’s a shadow of his decreased ‘23 self.

Arenado isn’t much better. He only has six home runs, which would be nice if we were discussing a young outfielder like Alec Burleson (he has 11 actually). He’s hitting .296 in his last seven games, but most of those are singles. He has three doubles and a home run so far in June, stuck on a power speed bump episodically. There’s little hope of him climbing out of it as the relentless grind of the season starts to stack up. Adjustments would not only be made by now, but should be yielding results.

This team stalled due to a lack of power production from expected power producers. Any halfway knowledgeable baseball mind can surmise that Jordan Walker’s sophomore slump can be broken down simply to a matter of pitchers making that adjustment on him. These are two veterans making a combined $60 million this year to produce a combined 1.1 fWAR (wins above replacement via Fangraphs). That’s a little over a win from BOTH players as the halfway point of the season rockets towards us.

It’s unacceptable and disappointing. Today, the team dropped a series to the very bad Miami Marlins. Skip Schumaker’s foray into managing is going about as well as the Bay of Pigs went, but that didn’t stop his fishes from throwing a sneaky left hook at the Cards’ jawline. Kyle Gibson missing today’s start due to back spasms set off the avalanche before the first pitch could be thrown, but this team coughed up a winnable game last night.

Arenado was 0-6 Monday night, and scratched out two hits today. Goldschmidt was 2-8, with one of those hits being a home run. Paltry production from two players who should have given this team 3-4 wins already. Add those wins into the record, and the situation looks less dire. As is, the team is stuck in the middle without a big gun.

Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, and Burleson have met and gone beyond what was expected, but their effect only reaches so far if two guys paid to carry the ship aren’t regularly producing. Goldschmidt and Arenado eat up two key spots in the top six lineup spots, and that hit or miss carries a heavy sway.

This abrupt absence of power and MVP-type production from the two big transactions in the past decade finishes a disappointing picture that first formed with Arenado’s arrival. Following Goldschmidt and producing a thrilling 2022 dual effort, there was means for excitement about what the future looked like. And then the Cardinals failed to pull the trigger on starting pitching, and 2023 was flushed down the toilet.

2024 hasn’t been as rocky or awful, but it’s a good distance from good. As I told Mark Reardon on 97.1 FM yesterday, the third wildcard spot gives 75% of the teams in the league an open look at a playoff “spot.” The Cardinals won’t fall much lower than they are, middling around the .500 mark like annoying Brad at the very cool parties. They could sneak in, but would be quickly thrown out for not belonging.

A lot of that-including last year’s collapse-can be tied to the missing bats of Arenado and Goldschmidt. I’m sure they’re swell fellas who enjoy a nice dinner date with the wife and would be nice to talk to at a bar, but they’re sucking at their jobs this season. As a writer, I have created plenty of word salads on their successes. Avoiding their clear failures would be a diet blogger move.

If they are doing their job, the team is over .500 and possibly nudging closer to the Milwaukee Brewers for first place. The pitching wouldn’t be so stretched from having to protect super tight baseball games just about every night. You trade for and extend big producers like them because they enhance everything right about the team and create gaps in games.

With a soft .372 and .360 respective slugging percentage, Arenado and Goldschmidt aren’t giving the Cardinals any edge. Until they do, kiss any sense of a playoff chance goodbye, and you may as well start selling parts.

St. Louis finishes June 19 below .500 at 36-37.