Paul Goldschmidt's power outage is not a new thing
It's either a harsh cliff drop aging trend, bad start, or something worse for 2022 MVP.
Paul Goldschmidt raced out of the gate a year ago. Remember that grand slam against Toronto? His OPS for March/April was .914 and he stroked ten doubles, slugging over .500. It was the big guy unleashing terror on pitchers like he had done for the majority of the previous season.
Remember 2022? Goldschmidt plugged his lumber into the intro season for Oliver Marmol, leveling his team up to a playoff spot. The 1.000+ OPS months, and the extra-base hit consistency. You didn’t have to hope for the guy to do his job. He had a torrid first five months of the season. And then he dropped off a decent amount in September, leading to a deflated two game playoff performance.
One could say he’s been pretty average, at least for his own higher standards, or less since then. He had a strong entry month to the 2023 season, but every following month was either good enough, less than satisfying, or outright ghostly.
2024 has been much worse. Goldschmidt would be dreaming right now about a .750 or higher OPS, which combines on base percentage and slugging percentage. How bad have things gotten for the first baseman? He’s slugging .233 at the moment. That’s basically the badlands for Goldschmidt. He’s sitting on one homer and hasn’t hit a double yet in 60 at bats. That’s only 1/8 of a season’s at bats, but still enough to be alarmed.
Monday night, he went 0-3 with a walk and run scored. That’s nice if you’re the 9th place hitter, not the big bopper collecting juicy appearances at the top of the order. There’s no cure or upside in sight, unlike his corner infielder partner. Nolan Arenado still hasn’t started stinging the ball lately, but he’s at least getting hits. Baseballs aren’t willingly hurling towards his bat with a smile on their face.
According to a longtime Twitter follower, Kyle Jahner, Goldschmidt hasn’t hit a baseball over 105 mph since Sept. 23, even counting spring training. That’s about as encouraging as the dentist looking at your teeth and suddenly wincing. Hard hit balls are a popular statistic these days, and they shine an unsavory light on Goldschmidt’s lack of power.
Goldschmidt’s hard hit percentage in 2023 was actually greater than his MVP-season, sitting right around 50%. That’s the percentage of baseballs that come off his bat at 95 mph or greater. His hard hit percentage this season is 26.8%. Barrels are another impressive stat to keep an eye on, and it calculates the number of times that the exit velocity and launch angle are comparable to a .500 batting average and 1.300 OPS. In a nutshell, when the hitter strikes the ball perfectly.
Goldschmidt, who averages around 55 barrels per season, has ONE barrel registered on Fangraphs. He’s hit a baseball that travels faster than 95 mph only eleven times in 60 at-bats. It’s a small sample size town from that particular aspect, but the downward spiral from last April is a noticeable one. He’s lost something, hopefully not permanently.
It’s a no-shit blanket to say the Cardinals direly need Goldschmidt and/or Arenado to be slugging, and both somewhat hitting at least. Right now, they barely have one, and the other is completely lost. Bad luck is one thing to always consider, but there is no bad luck issue with Goldschmidt. He’s not hitting the ball hard enough or often enough to have bad luck be considered.
His contract expires at the end of the season. He will turn 37 in September, and I can’t see the team extending him in his current state. It could be a possible reason-and this is assuming the front office is still somewhat smart-that the team hasn’t offered him an extension. With his stellar defense and steady bat (at least up until now), I was slotting him in for a comfy 2-3 year extension that allows him to slide into the designated hitter role. Then again, Willson Contreras may have that spot locked down with Ivan Herrera’s sudden breakout.
All of this adds up to the loss of Goldschmidt’s power stroke potentially short-circuiting the entire lineup. Arenado hasn’t located his power stroke yet. Jordan Walker didn’t exactly pick up where his impressive 2023 second half finish left off. Lars Nootbaar just got back and needs time, but his bat isn’t on yet. Masyn Winn is the hottest bat, but back stiffness (??) and a rest schedule haven’t allowed him to play a good string of games.
Goldschmidt is the lone wolf when it comes to hanging a hat on the cause for this anemic offense that ranks 22nd in slugging and 23rd in OPS. St. Louis’s OBP is .299, and they’re third to last in home runs. Tyler O’Neill, who cut open his forehead on a collision in the outfield Monday, has seven home runs. The Cardinals have 13 as a staff.
When it comes to power, the buck should stop with Goldschmidt. He’s not hitting baseballs hard, and it’s a downward trend. Human beings are known to decline in a steady fashion over the course of ages that sit right around Goldschmidt’s age. But seeing it happen this rapidly would be more uncommon. He posted a respectable, if not great, .810 OPS last year with ten less home runs than his 2022 total. This year, it’s completely missing.
Suggestion: Rest him. Don’t move Jordan Walker to first base just yet, but it shouldn’t be a hard spot to fill for a day or two. He could use a day or two to get his mind right, even if it’s not something he particularly likes. Or, you drop him in the lineup. Like I mentioned in yesterday’s Winn article, let the shortstop take over the two spot in the lineup, and move Goldschmidt to sixth or lower. He can soak up easy RBI there, and rebuild his swing.
If not, hope for a breakout or prepare for more action from a sad trend. I wouldn’t have Goldschmidt on my “declining soon” bingo card, but this sport can be brutal to even the strongest of hitters. Stats tell a story, and this one isn’t a happy one for Cardinals fans.
The big guy is in a real funk, and I’m not sure there is a way out of it. What do you suggest that hasn’t been presented already? Do the Cardinals have coaches who can actually help “Goldy” fly again? Dicey bet. However, a couple remedies do sit in Oliver Marmol’s hands, that is when he isn’t using those hands to grab security guards.
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