Sonny Gray or Ryan Helsley: Who should the Cardinals keep this offseason?
Riddle me this, riddle me that, Cardinal Nation. I tell you which one I'd hold onto.
Good evening. As I deal with lower back pain that is best described as a tiny knife being twisted into my hip hour by hour, let’s talk about an eventful offseason unfolding for the St. Louis Cardinals. As Mike Shildt and the Padres go up against Jack Flaherty and the Dodgers with some fire included, let’s get into the big contract stakeholders that could be on the move.
If the Cardinals stick to their word, the 2025 MLB team payroll will go down. Love it or hate it, but the television rights situation would make any level-thinking business mind take pause in going overboard on the big league team that is going through a clear transition… and REBUILD! If the DeWitts won’t say it, I happily will.
So, you can’t pay two guys around $30 million apiece if you’re rebooting. It’s troublesome to carry both Nolan Arenado ($35 million!) and Sonny Gray (bumped to $25 million) next season if you’re trying to shred dollars. It doesn’t take a ton of extra money to throw a better amount into the minor league infrastructure, but the lack of a realistic home for broadcasts next year (profits that could reach $70 million) means the Bills are downsizing.
Trading Willson Contreras could be viable, but his bat has gotten stronger with each season as a Cardinal. He fires up the clubhouse, has become a better catcher at Busch, and is a face to build a team around. He’s 32 years old, and has a reasonable low-budget contract that doesn’t have a ton of term left. But he could easily go in a trade that could bring in young players.
However, what if we think about Gray and Ryan Helsley for now? The latter is due a decent raise himself in arbitration, unless the Cards forgo that pony show and just give him an extension. A trade could still take place, with the other team receiving their own term insurance in a most likely blockbuster swap. Then again, is trading Helsley and keeping Gray the wise play?
Unless both of them go in a shocking house-cleaning, let’s assume one of them goes. Which do you keep? Both are great at their job. Gray rebounded from a rough middle patch to put together an impressive first season under the Arch. He struck out more, gave up more homers, and was sharper overall. Hittable, but sharp. The rotation needs a rock-like foundation, and Sonny fits the bill.
But giving up a closer who racked up a franchise record 48 saves this year would be risky. A great closer is the difference between a 70-win team and an 80-win team. 2024 is a good example, with Helsley having a much bigger effect this summer than last year when the team finished 71-91. He had his issues in the ninth, but got sharper as the temperatures rose. It was also his first real complete (and healthy) season as a closer.
He will get paid, and it will be over $10 million, possibly closer to $12-13 million per season. That’s what great closers get paid these days. Don’t hate the player; Hader the game. Sorry, a dad punch couldn’t be resisted there. Helsley will get a beefy one-year deal, or he will get an extension.
Between the two, Gray and Helsley, I would hold onto Hels Bells. On a team just about in the playoff mix, Gray would be a pleasant sunrise for that contender. This team isn’t near that kind of shape, and have begun an overhaul. A younger team will need a great closer to avoid an abysmal finish. With some luck and unexpected output, it could get them into a wildcard spot.
Helsley means more to the 2025 (and ‘26 and ‘27) Cardinals than Gray. He was the final face teams saw 48 times this year. It’s one thing to finish between 30-35, and get a solid thumbs up from the masses. Getting closer to 50 puts you in a special class of door slammers.
I’d rather keep them both to bolster the front and back end of the pitching staff, but the team has some younger starters who need the exposure and stage to access their long-term worth. Helsley will be necessary when the game gets into the late stages. Ryan Fernandez and Chris Roycroft showed flashes of 8th-9th threats, but Helsley is a big component of the machine.
He is a machine. As an unconventional offseason finds its seat and stretches its legs, these are the tough questions the team faces, and the fans will be dealing with as 2025 approaches.
Contreras is expendable. He came to be a catcher and is no longer trusted to do that. His bat has value; cash in on it. We have plenty of others who can DH.
Gray and Helsley depend on the FO’s strategy. If they legitimately plan to contend, keep one or both and sell near the deadline if they’re out of contention. Otherwise, be open to offers to help the rebuild.
Regarding Helsley in particular, if this team won’t contend, it’s a waste to hang on to an elite closer who despite being lights-out, can only turn a turd into a slightly polished turd. A shitty team needs a top closer like they need cases of celebratory victory champagne stacked in the clubhouse.