Super Bowl LIX Prediction: Chiefs, Eagles, and the final score

Can the Chiefs defense allow Patrick Mahomes the chance for fourth quarter magic?

There’s a clear difference between skill and luck. As in, Patrick Mahomes getting jewels from referees and fans thinking it is the reason he is the king of the NFL at the moment. It’s not hyperbole or a stretch. If the Kansas City Chiefs win tonight, they will become the first team in NFL history to win three Super Bowls in a row. It will be done without cheating, too.

Please, be better than the people on the internet who cover the Chiefs wins in cheat wrap. Bullshit penalty flag on the play. 15 yards for thinking something very stupid. The distance between favoritism and knowing a team’s plays before the snap is a long drive. The simple question with Super Bowl LIX, aka S.B. 59, revolves around the Chiefs’ defense.

Specifically, can the Chiefs’ defense slow down Philadelphia in the first three quarters to allow for Mahomes’ magic in the fourth quarter? That’s what they did against the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen. A mix of Steve Spagnuolo blitz packages and defensive schemes was just enough to allow the difference maker to dominate in the final minutes. The Eagles are different.

They run better with Saquon Barkley destroying defenses to the tune of embarrassing yardage over the course of the entire last calendar year. Jalen Hurts is a two-time Pro Bowl quarterback but he is not Mahomes. The Eagles’ version of that is Barkley, but can he climb over a Chiefs defensive line that will be waiting for him? We shall see.

The Eagles do score a ton of points. 13 playoff touchdowns, more than any other team. They’ve averaged 366 yards per game and run over teams. It’ll be up to the pass-rushers, safeties, linebackers, and cornerbacks to place the running game in a vice and shrink their space. Spags’ best case scenario is making Hurts beat the Chiefs with his arm.

Mahomes and the Chiefs did put up a lot of points on the Bills last weekend in the first three quarters, something they will have to do again if a three-peat does happen. Philly’s best plan should be to bury Kansas City early on and not allow Mahomes to make a comeback. Do what the Seattle Seahawks did to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the first quarter of their Super Bowl: Beat them hard and early. Punch them in the mouth on tackles, avoid penalty flags with extra attacks on Mahomes, and wear down the Chiefs’ defenders with the MVP finalist, Barkley.

My mortgage money would be on the Chiefs winning by three points or less again. It’s science and history rolled into one. Their offense isn’t lethal enough at the moment to put a team down early, so it’ll be a close push to the end. Harrison Butker may have a shitty take on what women should be doing, but he can absolutely boot the football through uprights from long distances on the biggest stage… so he’s a little less of a dickhead for three hours every February.

Like it or not, he and the Chiefs defense are the X-factors tonight.

My prediction: Chiefs 30, Eagles 28.

In the end, it’s hard betting against the king who does get a call or two from the refs during crunch time. It’s like betting against St. Louis weather being shitty. Unhealthy at best. Andy Reid, Mahomes, and Spagnuolo have too much pedigree on the biggest stage, as the wise Bernie Miklasz wrote yesterday, to bet against at this very moment. Before I go, let me say this. There’s a clear, easy route to this game going Philadelphia’s way. From what I’ve seen of football, though, I like the Chiefs’ chances more.