The Cardinals need to figure out what Tyler O'Neill is in 2023

He's been great, mediocre, injury prone, thrilling, and disappointing.

Weaknesses on a team can be illuminated in the postseason. A certain need in the lineup, bullpen depth, or a rotation not at 100%. For the St. Louis Cardinals, the failed playoff series against Philadelphia a week ago showed a few leaks on the roster.

Along with a struggling Adam Wainwright and the two MVP candidates sharing cold bats at the moment, the Cards could have used an impact bat like Tyler O’Neill. It’s too bad he was hurt towards the end of the season, and couldn’t land a spot on the Wildcard Series roster due to the latest ailment.

It’s a mix of various ailments and an inconsistent performance at the plate that have doomed O’Neill. For example, the thing he is most known for is the ability to launch a baseball a few hundred feet behind home plate.

In 2021, easily his best season as a MLB everyday player, he accumulated a 6.3 bWAR (Wins Above Replacement via Baseball Reference), posted a .912 OPS, and smashed 34 home runs. In his four other seasons combined, he has hit 35 home runs. In two of his last four seasons, he’s slugged under .400.

Injuries can contribute to the power stick being able, but it’s not something you want to see with a guy known for his power. Look, the two Gold Gloves are great but NOBODY is paying T.O.N. big money to accumulate trophies in the field’s easiest position.

In his first three seasons, O’Neill saw 141 at-bats or less. In the past two, he has at least 383 at-bats. More consistent at-bats can contribute to a consistent power stroke, but far too many times this year he couldn’t get it going. Good in short bursts, but nothing like 2021.

2022’s 26 extra base hits in just 96 games isn’t something to sneeze at, but it’s not something a team or player wants to encounter before a very likely arbitration hearing. The juice from this last uneven year resides in the preseason drama the two sides experienced. After his explosive 2021 season, O’Neill wanted to get paid and the Cards didn’t budge on their offer.

While I was all for paying him a higher salary for this year, any fan who didn’t oppose the long-term deal is breathing a quiet sigh of relief today. If the team had buckled and given him five years and $60-75 million instead of waiting to see if he could do it again, the offseason plans this December would look a lot different.

So, as 2023 approaches, O’Neill has two more years before he reaches free agency, and the team will spend that time figuring out what kind of player he really is. Is O’Neill a durable, part-time power-hitting fella--or is he a bona fide and dependable full-time player?

The Cards don’t have a lot of time to figure this out. O’Neill is turning 28 in June, and the outfield looks different these days. Harrison Bader isn’t anchoring center field and while Dylan Carlson can give the team a reliable centerfielder on defense, his bat is still questionable. He had a good breakout year in 2021, but struggled to hit consistently this year. But he’s young and still has years of control.

O’Neill has a timer attached to his time here, and it’s called Jordan Walker. With the team refusing to give Carlson up in trade talks this past season, and Alec Burleson having shredded Triple-A pitching, there isn’t time to wait and see on the Canadian left fielder. Walker will need a good chunk of 2023 to gear up in Memphis, but he could be here before the end. That gives O’Neill this coming year to draw a map to the big contract he wants.

Here’s the thing. If O’Neill can do what he did in 2021 even to a lesser degree-like a 3.5 WAR instead of a 6.3-the team becomes a tougher force and adds more depth. It’s not a case of me wanting the guy to fail, so there can be room for Walker and the rest of the up and comers. Unlike those guys, O’Neill has proven himself at this level. It’s what the team can expect out of him consistently that remains to be seen.

There’s a good chance Tommy Edman less everything and more shortstop/second base next year. There’s a very good chance Brendan Donovan plays a good amount of second base, along with everything else. If the team could teach him to catch, the front office would celebrate, because that’s another area of need this winter.

There’s also a fine chance that Nolan Gorman and Juan Yepez get a decent amount of at-bats next year, because they’re cheap and have proven to hold a bat at this level. Remember, they supplied the ONLY offense in that pitiful Phillies series.

So, O’Neill doesn’t have the luxury of time, especially with the gradual makeup of this team getting younger and younger. If he comes out and produces another .700-ish OPS with less than stellar games played and slugging, the decision will be easy for the team in deciding his future. I love the guy’s energy and attitude, and his ability to pick up a slumping lineup, but his career thus far paints an unsure future.

I sure hope he makes that decision by the front office harder after 2023.