The Lars Nootbaar effect
The Cardinals leadoff man can be a dynamic lineup influence when he's healthy.
Last year, or possibly the year before, I wrote an article stating that Lars Nootbaar was overrated and not untouchable in trade talks. The latter part was the real emphasis, because the overrated aspect was tied to a single reason: The man couldn’t stay healthy. That’s not as frustrating for the fan as it must be for the player, but the lingering headshake abides no matter what.
He’s not as injury-prone as J.D. Drew or Steven Jackson, but the man could still pull a muscle or tweak his knee, potentially being sidelined for weeks. I want to bubble wrap the guy like I would my wife before she goes out with her friends. An injury is bound to happen with enough steps.
Nootbaar’s appeal has always been easy to detect, and it’s not just based on baseball stats. He’s a loud, charismatic voice in a formerly quiet clubhouse full of quiet leaders like Nolan Arenado and the departed Paul Goldschmidt. He’s always smiling, pushing his teammates to greater heights, and seems like the perfect teammate. When fans thought he could somehow persuade his pal, Shohei Ohtani, to sign here, I couldn’t bring myself to believe they had a chance, even though Noot’s personality seemed to know no bounds. Clubhouses need a Nootbaar in their house.
He’s also a solid ballplayer, flashing just enough defense in the outfield to balance his efficient .782 OPS. He can hit 15 home runs and draw a lot of walks, as he doesn’t chase pitches outside the zone (he ranked in the top 5 last year in that category last year). There’s a nice quality to having a guy who doesn’t give the opposing pitcher an inch at the plate when others are striking out. Nootbaar is the perfect catalyst for an explosive lineup.
Since the beginning of the 2025 season, Nootbaar has been a headache for pitchers and there’s no Tylenol in sight. He works pitchers over even when the at-bat results in an out, and he hits the ball to all fields. A walk is likely, but a home run is also on the table. Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan can’t come close to the same leadoff capacity that Lars has, and it’s showing in the robust offense that has helped the team to a 4-2 start.
In 30 plate appearances, he’s reached base via a hit or walk 15 times. He’s hit one less home run than the amount of strikeouts (3 to 2), and reveals most of a pitcher’s tricks inside a single at-bat. In the field, he can make a game-saving catch and doesn’t have a problem with any part of the outfield.
Health has been his greatest challenge. He’s never played more than 117 games in a season, which came in 2023. He sprained his thumb on opening day of last season. He hurt his back sliding into a wall later on in the season, and fouled a ball off his nuts as well. In 2024 during spring training, he fractured two ribs when his arm got jammed into his midsection while colliding with the wall again.
He hit the Injured List with a strained oblique last season. Those two injuries cost him 48 games of playing time. When it comes to Nootbaar and outfield walls, there should be a force field that doesn’t allow him to pass the warning track. So far this spring, he’s avoided painful moments that sideline him. (Knocks on desk.)
When he’s healthy, Nootbaar is a precious resource. When he’s hurt, the team is less and the offense suffers. Perhaps the biggest hole in the lineup during the past two seasons has been a lack of consistent Noot seasoning.
If he can stay healthy, the Lars Nootbaar effect is deadly. Is he still overrated? The more at-bats he takes without saying ouch, the more that feeling drifts from my head. Is he untradeable? For this team, no way. However, being 27 years old with a birthday in September and under team control until 2028 (arbitration hits next year), he’s not someone you’d let go lightly.
The Cardinals have found their leadoff guy at long last. Now, where’s the stretch wrap?