The Nolan Arenado effect hasn't fully reached Cardinal Nation just yet
He's just getting warmed up, friends.
You haven’t seen the best of Nolan Arenado in St. Louis just yet.
Don’t get me wrong. 2021 was a fine introduction, like the plate of potato skins before the large steak arrives. Arenado knows this too. He wasn’t thoroughly impressed with a season that saw him move out of the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field and into the pitcher-friendly confines of Busch Stadium. A season where Arenado had a 121 OPS+, smacked 34 doubles and home runs, and struck out less than 100 times with 50 walks.
Oh, he also won his ninth straight Gold Glove at third base, which he turns into a master class every time a pitch is thrown. He brings back fond memories of Scott Rolen and Gary Gaetti sliding into foul territory to gun a runner down. He throws bullets and demands it of his fellow infielders. When he commits an error, it just doesn’t look real. Like CGI devil magic being performed by the Rockies GM or something.
But he has better in him. No one should expect the 2017 Arenado to show up. The one who was an All Star, won the GG, finished 4th in MVP ranking, and won the Silver Slugger award. That was boosted by a home field that does aid a sweet stroke like Arenado’s swing. A .959 OPS is probably history, but .850-.875 isn’t out of the equation.
Thump isn’t an issue. Arenado slugged .494 last season, which is what you would expect in the transition--especially the first year in new settings. But the .255 batting average and .312 on base percentage held the disappointment. His discipline at the plate didn’t lead to excessive strikeouts, even if the walks dropped. (Again, predictable when leaving a field that made you a hitting god.)
If he can raise those up, along with a small boost in slugging %, one can see Arenado completely smash the myth that hitters who leave Coors Field can’t perform nearly as strong elsewhere. Matt Holliday put a hammer to it with his .874/.936 OPS split between St. Louis and Colorado. Arenado could take another few hacks at it, because he will be here awhile.
He’s sticking around. I just can’t see Arenado, even after a strong season that doesn’t end in a World Series trophy or possibly even a real pennant chase, opting out of a very generous contract. Not at 31 years of age, which he will be on April 16. He has a spot etched out here after Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina do depart the league, possibly the face of the franchise. He has that go-hard 162 spirit and the charisma to go with a deep respect for the game and the legends who played it before him.
That’s leader type stuff. But Arenado’s performance at the plate should see a rise in 2022. The second year in, with some comfort on his shoulders now and an interesting season ahead, could bring out the real Nado. What we have seen is pretty good, but guys like Arenado don’t settle for good. They don’t settle for a WAR around 4.0; one around 6.2 is more like it. That’s what he expects, so fans should keep it in their minds too.
According to MLB.com reporter John Denton, the swing already looks good two days into camp.
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry/USA Today Sports