Throw them the heater! Why the Cardinals should trade for Lance Lynn
They should have never let him walk away in the first place.
Think about what you’d like to get out of a starting pitcher, and Lance Lynn can give it to you. It’s not always ace of the rotation-type work, even if Lynn did finish in the top 5 for Cy Young voting from 2019-2021. He did that with the Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox, two of his American League destinations after being let go by the St. Louis Cardinals.
One could use “let go” loosely in that case, being that Lynn signed with another team after the team failed to bring him an offer. Mixed inside that bittersweet cocktail is Tommy John surgery that wiped out his complete 2016 season, which sent a ripple through his pending free agent status.
However, Lynn’s final year with St. Louis was rock solid, a repeat of his entire career with the Cardinals. He started 33 games, posted a 3.43 ERA, racking up 186 innings. But his strikeouts-per-nine-inning were down, from double digits and at least 8.8 to 7.4. The fastball-dominant righthander entering his 30s soon who may have lost a couple mph from his cheddar production after surgery is a headline John Mozeliak could have sold at an auction. However, it’s standard practice for a starter to need a year before getting his full velocity back.
Here’s another bittersweet thing. Lynn became even better-stepping into a top of the rotation performer instead of one who spent a few weeks in that productive element. What’s even more amazing is that Lynn got better after switching leagues, joining the hitter-friendly American League.
The transition took a year and a few teams, with Lynn finding traction with the New York Yankees after a quick uneventful stop in Minnesota. It was after he joined Texas that he became something more, a pitcher that the Cardinals decided wasn’t worth their time. Granted, there were reports of friction between him and the front office, but that type of dispute never stopped a little more money from washing a bad feeling away.
Whatever the reason was that led directly to Lynn’s departure (was his lease finally up?), it’s time to consider bringing him back. Consider the fact that every free agent replacement for Lynn’s type of production has stunk. Mike Leake collected paychecks after he left St. Louis, the result of a premature 5-year offer that didn’t look too wise in the end. Steven Matz has been such a disappointment that he’s been switched between the bullpen and the rotation since his arrival. Money wasted isn’t the right way to put it; just not well spent.
That’s been a thorn in the front office’s side since Brett Cecil looked like hot shit back in 2016. Money does get spent, but it’s usually a good looking but not well cooked piece of meat rather than a perfectly seared ribeye. The one you grab at the store because it matches the description of your hunt, even if more risk yet better taste sits a couple spots away. Bad decisions have haunted this team for years.
Retaining Lynn, who has a $18 million option for next season, would be a wise decision. Yes, a quick look at his 2023 performance would produce some alarm. An ERA over 6.00 that requires a string of flawless starts doesn’t include allowing 7-8 earned runs in one night. Due to three bad outings, the bloated ERA doesn’t show six outings where 6-7 innings were completed without more than three runs allowed.
Lynn has completed seven innings in three starts this season, which should look like gooey butter cake to manager Oliver Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake right about now. With Matz struggling back in the rotation and Adam Wainwright stranded on “labeled injured but probably soul searching” island, packing some innings into the frayed rotation sounds more ingenious than putting more on Matthew Liberatore’s shoulders-or waiting for Wainwright to visit the fountain of youth again.
It’s not a bad bet to predict a decent drop in that ballooned ERA once Lynn was back in the far friendlier confines of Busch Stadium-his place of work for six seasons, including a World Series title in 2011. Lynn’s earned run average/WHIP was 2.95/1.17 in 2015 and 2.91/1.25 in 2017 at Busch.
Now, let’s play devil’s advocate. Lynn has allowed 73 earned runs and 24 home runs in half a season, and he turned 36 in May. Also, he isn’t a savior, and shouldn’t be looked at as the answer to all the Cards’ problems. Signing him isn’t the only move; it’s the start. He’s a bridge to 2025, and that’s with a bounce-back second half.
It’s easy to turn the page on an older Lynn, who also happens to own one of the driest senses of humor in the league. He’s also still striking batters out at a rate of 11 per nine frames. The fastball cheddar train still rides around 92 mph. Last year, he compiled a 3.99 ERA with the White Sox, who aren’t what they used to be with a 40-55 record. There’s also the knee injury he came back from last month, something that has plagued him since March.
Is there something left in the tank, outside of a Southside purgatory? I think so. He wouldn’t be going to a contender, but Lynn and St. Louis need each other more than ever.
The Cards shouldn’t have let him walk, because in general he’s been a high quality pitcher who found a way to navigate his talents into the AL--a league St. Louis plays more often this year. In a down season with the age meter pointing in the wrong direction, Lynn needs the safer confines of Busch to make a comeback.
Make this trade, cut some roster space that won’t be here next year, and then build a bigger trade for younger, sustainable talent. That’s all for tonight. Until next time, ramble on!