Why I would trade for Xander Bogaerts, but the Cardinals would not
Jim Bowden has stirred the pot early, Cardinal Nation.
Look, I get it. Watching Xander Bogaerts play baseball is arousing. All you have to do for a ticket is head over to YouTube and climb aboard a highlight train or two. He can hit for average, get on base, and provide thump at the plate with his bat.
His Achilles Heel, if the Boston Red Sox shortstop has one, is pedestrian defense. If you know the Cardinals halfway well, you will know that defense is a top priority. Above average defense, that is. It’s the only reason they continued to play a terribly slumping Paul DeJong at short this season until his assignment to Memphis.
Think of all the team’s big trades recently. Paul Goldschmidt has a versatile bat, but he also owns four Gold Gloves. Eight of Nolan Arenado’s nine Gold Gloves were with him upon arrival. Jason Heyward chose Chicago over St. Louis, but he turned down a long term offer from Bill DeWitt Jr. and company before he left. He was a defensive specialist who could hit a little.
Matt Holliday was the last bat with average defense that the team traded for. That was 2009. While a member of Cardinal Nation can be thankful Heyward traveled north, they can use the recent action as evidence that a trade with Boston for Bogaerts involving their #2 prospect in Nolan Gorman is unlikely.
That’s what The Athletic’s Jim Bowden proposed this week when discussing the ailing Red Sox and the still steady Cardinals. KMOV’s Brenden Schaeffer put up one of his popular polls, looking to see which way Cardinal Nation was leaning.
Think about the logistics first. St. Louis had their pick of the litter this past offseason, before and after the lockout. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and more were available, and wouldn’t cost the guy you’re currently training to play at a less-attractive position. Nolan Gorman went from being a third baseman to second base as a reaction to the team trading for Arenado.
So, now they’re just going to turn and trade him? I don’t think so. Now, what would I do if it was me with the DeWitt Jr. vault passcode?
I’d make the deal. I love a great-hitting prospect as much as the next guy, but Gorman is a defensive project who could flourish into a decent second baseman and above average hitter-or, he doesn’t and goes in the other direction. That’s an uncertainty that the Cardinals have been in bed with for too long.
Switch up your attack or strategy, or the manner with which you build teams and go after championships. Unless you’re comfortable stacking money and finishing in the wildcard slot or winning the division before an NLCS exit. Take that last statement as the best case. This current team can’t hang with Los Angeles or Atlanta. They went toe to toe, shove to shove with the New York Mets--but came up short last night versus the Baltimore Orioles, a lesser team.
Forget the past. I’m tired of hearing about what the Cardinals have done in the past. Eleven titles, pennants, red seas packing downtown. As George Carlin famously and hilariously once said, “stop living in the past.” That genius did every drug in the world and lived until he was 71.
If you want to relish the past, walk inside Ballpark Village and buy a $12 Budweiser and walk over to that giant World Series trophy statue that Felix Baumgartner could have taken a picture from 39,000 feet. Stand next to it, and give it a nice little hug. Then, stop talking about the past.
What will the Cardinals do now? What’s their strategy after 2022’s nostalgia tour? I’m still waiting on Albert Pujols to crack the ice off those knees and bash #682 into the stands, but starting once a week doesn’t do much for a cold bat.
Getting back to the point, I like what Bogaerts has to offer. There’s a mirage of Correa, Seager, and Semien in one body. Here’s what he’s done up until now, via the esteemed (if not real) Michael Girsch:
A 1.9 UZR via the great Fangraphs website isn’t something to sneeze at, or buy a blueberry muffin. You just accept it and try to improve upon it, because of how sexy the offense is.
Low strikeout rate and a deft slash line isn’t something to take for granted. 117 wRC+ takes into account league averages around ballparks and the position. At the plate, Bogaerts is a beast. A 29-year-old with a big bat and an okay glove.
But remember the infield defense for the Cardinals is stuffed with Gold Gloves. Arenado, Goldschmidt, and Tommy Edman collectively own 14 of those trophies. One could easily imagine being sandwiched in there with them-and being helped by the great Jose Oquendo-would have a positive effect on the win/loss record and fantasy baseball sheets.
He isn’t a player who relies on a particular field, so please bring your Fenway cases to rest. Bogaerts is who the Cardinals should have signed in the offseason, or someone just like him. DeJong at shortstop won’t cut it. Edmundo Sosa doesn’t hit enough, and his defense is less than DeJong’s. Moving Edman to short for Gorman sounds good in the trailer, but the actual movie could be a disaster.
Maybe this trade is the team’s way out of that middle high-ground of contention. They get in, and manage not to get demolished or shut out of the NLCS. Or, they wait and see on more rookies--ones they most likely trade or extend too early. Oh baby, the Cardinal Way sure needs to change.
Would I go with the eight-year, $216 million extension? Probably not. I would hope it would be lower, especially since has a current deal running through 2025 with a vesting option for 2026 attached. However, he has an opt-out clause after this year, something the Cardinals took on with Arenado but wouldn’t care to do it with a second player.
So you drop the opt out and tack on 3-5 years after the current contract ends, or go for the complete restructure. Again, it’s not something the Cardinals will do. I can’t see it, especially after they bowed out of merely spending in the offseason. Do you really see St. Louis handing over the golden child in Gorman for three-plus years of Bogaerts--or paying XB even more money after he is well into his 30s? They should start thinking about it; just don’t expect it to happen.
This trade would shock me. The previous two big ones didn’t carry this proposed level of shock. Even if it’s a shock I would welcome.
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Maddie Meyer | Credit: Getty Images