Why Miles Mikolas looms large for the Cardinals in 2023
It’s not just Mr. Flaherty who needs to perform above expectations.
When the St. Louis Cardinals signed Miles Mikolas to a two-year extension on Friday, I breathed a sigh of relief.
The Cardinals weren’t locking in their main man and no doubt axe to a couple more years; they were tightening up their certainties. Rotation certainties. Whine all you want about Adam Wainwright’s lower velocity, but he can still get plenty of outs with his curve and locating skills. He’s on the Injured List, with no sure date to return, with a groin injury.
Mikolas did exactly what was needed last year, without a lot of external praise or attention. While everyone fawns over his very impressive 2018 season, the other ones carry value too. Outside of the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, which Mikolas didn’t appear in, he’s made 32 starts in three of his last four seasons.
He’s averaged around 190 starts in those seasons, giving the Cardinals what they always need: quality innings. It’s easy to pick apart his 2019 body of work, especially if the WAR stat is observed-but I’ll take the 4.16 ERA if it comes with 184 innings.
Mikolas doesn’t have to be an ace or receive all the “will he or won’t he” attention. He’s a rock solid #3 starter who can be a #1 or #2 periodically. That’s what the Cardinals will need him to do this coming season. Be a little more than he has averaged over the start of his career in St. Louis.
This is required due to the sudden loss of Wainwright, the questionable status of Dakota Hudson, the wait and see emergence of brilliance in Jack Flaherty, and the unwillingness for the team to venture out into the free agent starting pitching market. Instead, the Cardinals instilled their confidence in Mikolas bringing more than he usually does.
You can’t bet on Flaherty being healthy for an entire season right now, much less be head of the class. He’s put together 35 starts over the last three seasons combined. Put together a manuscript about unfortunate injuries and undetermined future, but the story still reads the same. Flaherty needs to step into that bigger shadow, the one that stops losing streaks and makes opposing managers’ skittish.
How confident do you feel about Steven Matz staying healthy and being productive? Shovel me his past accomplishments, and I’ll tell you to frame his baseball card while you’re at it. What can he do for them now? Jordan Montgomery is more of a sure thing, but the Cards need certainty. A fair amount of it.
Mikolas gives the team that, now going through 2025. He’ll be 35 in August, but age doesn’t matter when a pitcher has figured out how to compete at the Major League level. He gets a lot of fly ball outs, but some of them find a spot over the wall. The WHIP is manageable, and the ERA+ of 114 makes his salary moving forward ($16-18 million annually, flexing on bonus structure) hang around the bargain end.
He’s not an ace, and that’s fine. Dylan Carlson doesn’t need to be Juan Soto either. Mikolas isn’t aiming to be Wainwright or Flaherty; just a guy who can give innings and 30+ starts.
Mikolas is less of an “if” than other Cards on the opening day roster, starting centerfielder Tyler O’Neill included. We’ll get into him next time at The Ramble.
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry/USA Today Sports