Why Ryan Helsley is the Cardinals’ MVP

A great closer is a diamond to a team that can’t score runs.

Jeff Curry/USA Today Sports

Wednesday was a rare evening for the St. Louis Cardinals-they won a game and didn’t need Ryan Helsley’s help. “Hells Bells,” or Hels Bells in this case, weren’t necessary when the top of the ninth inning began. Michael McGreevy gave the bullpen a rest with three solid relief innings, a respite for Helsley and the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup who would have opposed him. It wouldn’t have ended well for them.

When searching for a key ingredient that has kept the season from completely sliding into embarrassment mode, aka the most valuable player, it’s easily Helsley. He came into 2024 with 35 total saves in his career; he’ll finish the season with at least 45 saves, the last two of which helped St. Louis win the first two games of the Pittsburgh series. A chance at 50 before the final year of his arbitration sets up an interesting crossroads for team and player this winter.

The Cardinals have an opportunity to do one of three things this offseason: extend his contract, trade him at his highest value, or merely let the final year come and go before the negotiations must take place. All options are wise in their own ways, with different measures of risky business parlayed into the outcome.

On one hand, you can accumulate a potential boatload of prospects and a few MLB ready talents in a trade. Check out the Josh Hader trade in recent years as an example. For a team starved for prospects on the lower rungs and depth in their big league roster, it could be a big impact move. But there is the flipside of that equation.

Why would a team in need of a decent rebuild trade away the very asset that decides if their record is crap or at least mediocre? The Cardinals play a ton of close games, matchups decided by 1-3 runs. The enigmatic offense hasn’t helped a -56 run differential, with the lineup taking more naps than Lee Smith in his prime. While the R.D. total is about half of last year’s downright sewage -110, a guy like Helsley helps immensely.

Trading that asset away for anything less than a mind-blowing return would be careless. An asset that puts you on the happy side of a close game 45-50 times a year is a special breed of closer. While he can have his Dave Veres/half-injured Izzy dilemmas, the guy strikes a ton of batters out. In his last five appearances, Helsley has struck out 12 batters, walked one, and allowed four hits in six innings. After a few mid-year blown saves, the arm has been refined like a fine wine… a red wine.

Extending Helsley is the right play. Don’t let him walk into next year with a for-sale sign attached to his sizzling right arm, which has accounted for 74 strikeouts in 62.2 innings. He’s the only reason the team has 77 wins, and next year will require another stellar closer at the gate. I don’t imagine the team adding salary, or going overboard in free agency right out of the gate as the front office makes a transition of their own.

If the team is smart, they’ll oust John Mozeliak properly after his promised post-2025 season exit. Maybe he walks after this average campaign, but I doubt it. He won’t leave his baby until the little bastard kicks him out the door. As is, the team will be investing in a youth movement, which means they’ll probably spend less money. Anything else would be another pale attempt to act like they’re actually contending.

News flash: The third wildcard spot will leave the door open for most teams to sneak into a postseason run. The Cardinals can be one of those teams if they play their cards right, and actually push a youth movement. Having a stud ringing the bells like Helsley is a strong base to build a restoration around. If it’s four years around $60 million or whatever, you do it.

Don’t go to arbitration with the guy again. Make your most essential piece the right offer, and keep him around. That entrance music and red darkness around Busch is a signature experience, the sign of a connection being built between a player, team, and fanbase.

Remember this. Via Baseball Reference, Helsley’s WAR is 2.8. You would need both, not one, of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt’s WAR to outrun the closer’s contribution. They were MVP candidates two years ago. Helsley is the Cardinals MVP this year, and for the foreseeable future… with Masyn Winn coming up close behind.

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