Why the Cardinals shouldn't bring Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025
It's time to exit the nostalgia train, ladies and gents.
The future can constantly collide with the past if care isn’t taken to notice the difference between the two things. One will catch themselves looking back too often instead of building for what’s ahead. If the St. Louis Cardinals bring back Paul Goldschmidt next year after the conclusion of his current five year deal, the team will be stuck in the past once again.
Per Derrick Goold, the team plans to gauge Goldschmidt’s interest after the season ends. Instead, just pat him on the back and hand him his last check.
No team rides the nostalgia train more than St. Louis. It’s the gift that keeps on giving for Bill DeWitt Jr. and company. They brought back Adam Wainwright after the worst end to a season in his career. Here’s $20 million, Waino, to pad that first concert tour. They retained Albert Pujols, which led to an amazing finish. Matt Carpenter was brought back this year to occasionally start, pinch hit and dispense useful advice to young players while rocking the finest beard east of Hampton Avenue. Lance Lynn returned after a long absence, and has been decent.
Sometimes, it works. Sometimes, it backfires.
A Goldschmidt extension will backfire, and for a number of reasons. For a team that hasn’t won much outside of a single postseason series in the last ten years of play with another 50/50 season hanging over their head, it’s not the right timing to re-sign a guy settling into his late 30s who is in the midst of his worst season as a pro.
Goldschmidt hasn’t collected a hit since Thursday, a span of 18 at-bats. When the team was spiraling against the Cubs, he wasn’t there to offer up a big hit or break-through, instead striking or grounding out. The only positive in his stat line are the 17 home runs. Everything else is mediocre by his standards-a lot fewer walks and just 17 doubles-and below average. He can’t even slug over .400 or get a hit with runners in scoring position, but goodness let’s see if it changes next year with the same pitchers and strength of schedule.
That’s a reason most forget about in regards to the collapse of Nolan Arenado and Goldschmidt: the balanced schedule is harder on hitters who are starting to age less gracefully than before. They face an assortment of arms and parks that they aren’t familiar with, right as the baseball resembles more of a golf ball than a beach ball. Goldschmidt isn’t the player you traded for anymore. It’s not even close. Facing the full bluntness of the league’s arms won’t do him any favors.
The Cardinals can’t block a position with an old vet who indeed fell off a cliff this year offensively. But what about that defense? Oh yeah, let’s tie our bags to an above average defending his first baseman. Goldschmidt has saved St. Louis a single run on defense with his glove this year via Fangraphs, which isn’t as strong as it used to be. So, you’re wanting to re-sign a guy declining rapidly with a bat and slowly but surely with the glove? If you need players to be coaches at their position, hire a better coach.
Instead, offer up Luken Baker and Alec Burleson a chance to run with the position all for the sexy total of $1.1 million. Why not run with Baker next year? He's currently smashed 30 home runs and carries a sexy OPS of .896. The dude's 27 and slugging .551!! What does he have to do in order to get a shot? Or just continue wasting him. Confident he can do what 37-year-old Goldy does in 2025.
Baker slugged .720 in 84 games last year at Memphis. Burleson can face righties, and then spot up in the outfield or at designated hitter when Baker is covering the bag.
Don’t re-sign Goldschmidt. Part-time or whatever, just don’t. Turn over a new leaf, and just resist the idea of bringing back a guy who isn’t the star you traded for six years ago. For once in a blue moon, don’t bring back the nostalgia train. Here’s one solid reason: fans aren’t really packing the house for Goldschmidt. He’s like a diet Pujols to them, especially if you read the actual attendance and not preseason ticket sales.
Last night’s game against Tampa Bay was half-full in the second inning. Fans want something new and fresh, and Paul isn’t it. He’s an aging lion whose teeth grew exponentially longer in the last calendar year.
But what if he finishes great? Sure, then you take another look. How much are we really betting on that? He hasn’t had a hit, as of this writing, in almost a week.
There’s no way they’ll re-sign Goldschmidt. Even Mozeliak isn’t so stupid as to give him a contract. And there’s no nostalgia to salvage. Goldschmidt never lived up to the hype. Even in his MVP year, his production fell off a cliff in September and in the postseason.