Why the Tyler O'Neill-Marco Gonzales trade doesn't look so hot these days
The slugger's time in St. Louis has been a bizarre, injury-filled episode of baseball.
It’s not going to happen until the fall, but Tyler O’Neill is playing his final season in St. Louis. Book it. Count on it. There’s a variety of reasons for this and while it’s not officially confirmed by any righteous party, the writing is on the wall.
First and foremost, he can’t stay healthy. That denies a long term investment right off the bat. From his first full year in the majors to today, O’Neill has played in just 389 out of a possible 660 games. That’s only 59%, a damning statistic for a guy who whined about not getting a bigger deal after his explosive 2021 season.
That’s one season. Lightning in a bottle with extra pop included if you’re one of the loyal #27 fans who have been singing his praises since 2018 when he hit his first home run on May 18. Troubling inconsistencies if you’re standing on flat earth and seeing what everybody else sees. For the majority of the last two months, he has been mostly of the lineup. He was in for a hot week and a half before leaving again. After being scratched from the lineup against the Rays earlier this week, he was back in last night suddenly.
0-4, with one strikeout. Maybe he decides when he wants to play, because it seems that way. His power appeared briefly before his latest setback.
That’s the second problem. It’s not like O’Neill tears it up when healthy. All one needs to do is look at his slugging percentage over the years. Due to his reputation for power-a whopping 74 homers in 5+ years of play-one would think he’s at least over .400 each season. Even Dan Uggla could bear a decent SLUG with his 4400 strikeouts every year.
The answer is no, he’s not a consistent slugger. O’Neill has slugged over .400 in just three of his six seasons with St. Louis. It’s not a hitting philosophy or team wide issue. Nolan Gorman has cranked 38 home runs in just 191 games and 634 at bats the past two years. Everybody can slug lately except for Tyler. Excitement these days with him comes when he hits for two weeks.
That’s not getting you paid as birthday #28 arrived in June. You have to do something very well for a few seasons in order to claim the kind of contract O’Neill wants. That’s not happening in St. Louis.
One can’t ignore the loud noise off the field for O’Neill. There was the not so private beef in April with manager Oliver Marmol, following Marmol questioning his hustle to the media after the infielder got thrown out at home. You can’t forget about the noisy arbitration case where O’Neill wanted more money after his big 2021 season, and the team said no thanks and won the case.
The guy St. Louis traded for him has flourished. O’Neill was acquired from Seattle for a then-troubling young pitcher in Marco Gonzales, one who has since found his way with the Mariners. Gonzales has made 148 starts, posting a 4.08 ERA and tossing three complete games during that time.
Here’s something else. Gonzales is in the third year of a four-year deal with an option for 2025. He’s not having a stellar year this summer, losing some efficiency with a declining strikeout rate. He got the contract that O’Neill is still seeking out. One guy has been very effective, and the other guy hasn’t been too effective. You could say O’Neill’s collective brefWAR of 9.1 is better than Gonzales’s 8.1 wins above replacement mark-but I’d take the innings and pitching provided by the latter over a lightning bottle season that didn’t help the team win anything significant.
The Cardinals made one last attempt to soak value out of O’Neill this past month, not dealing him at the deadline when he was hitting and healthy. Now, he’s not healthy and contributes nothing. He has one more year of arbitration but I highly doubt that’s spent in St. Louis chasing a dream that the front office walked away from this year.
St. Louis needs answers in the outfield and not the kind that linger on. Jordan Walker may not own two Gold Gloves that O’Neill does, but he’s cheaper and more productive at the moment. He’s got time that Tyler doesn’t. It’s nothing personal, as if writing this makes me feel all happy inside.
After his raucous 2021 season, I was about ready to advocate for a long term deal for O’Neill. The combination of great defense and big pop was what the team needed; they just needed more of it than O’Neill’s body can provide.
Here’s the thing. Many years after the deal, the Cardinals would be stronger if they had kept Gonzales instead of trading for O’Neill. That’s a sign that something didn’t work out. The time is up to wait and see.
So long, big fella.